An occluded front will move northwestward and weaken on late Thursday/ early Friday, which introduces moisture to Ireland, Northern Ireland, Wales and England.
The moisture with the southerly wind will allow a period for thunderstorms to break out across parts of England and Wales. Most unstable convective potential energy (MUCAPE) might exceed 1000 J/kg across parts of England, perhaps reaching 1300 J/kg across Midlands. Daytime heating with relatively high MUCAPE will allow thunderstorms to develop widely across England, this perhaps turning severe, if not, organised across eastern parts of midlands and eastern parts of England, perhaps with some marginally severe size hail as well. Hence a high-end slight risk has been issued across most parts of England, with an area of most likely area of lightning covering parts of Central England. An enhanced risk has been added to parts of Lincolnshire, Northamptonshire, Rutland, Cambridgeshire, and Norfolk as there is a strong cross-model agreement for thunderstorms.
Some convective activities are also possible across Ireland and Northern Ireland, but the amount of cloud coverage might limit the amount of lightning, therefore a high-end low has been issued for parts of Ireland and Northern Ireland.
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