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Hurricane Waves

Windstorm tracker

Available when a potential windstorm has developed and might impact the British Isles.

Maximum wind gust near centre

typhoon blcak (1).png

20-59 mph

60-74 mph

75-89 mph

90-104 mph

>104 mph

Potential Track Area (70% probability)

First 48 hours

60-108 hours

Analysed location

Notes

1. Detailed information of the windstorm, including latitude, longitude, classification and          the maximum wind gust near centre will be shown when placing the mouse cursor                over the analysed or forecast positions. The user can use the controls on the left of the        map to change the area of interest and to zoom into city or even street levels.                        Please bear in mind the uncertainty of the windstorms locations as described                          below in using this function.
2. While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the                      windstorm, they may deviate from the actual path of the storm. Therefore, the probable      area within which the windstorm will fall with a probability of 70% are shown by the                yellow shading. Literally, it means that among 10 times of track forecast for similar                  situations, the windstorm will be centred within the indicated area in about 7 times. The        area grows as the forecast hour increases. It will be particularly larger beyond 48 hours        and is indicated with lighter shadings on the map. The size in terms of radius of the                'Potential Track Area' corresponding to different forecast hours are determined from              the error statistics of the forecasts issued in past years and are as shown in the                        following table:
    

Windstorm Track

Windstorm Track

Radius of 'Potential Track Area'

Analysed position 

12-hour forecast position

24-hour forecast position

36-hour forecast position

48-hour forecast position

60-hour forecast position

72-hour forecast position

84-hour forecast position

96-hour forecast position

100 km

150 km

205 km

260 km

320 km

385 km

455 km

520 km

108-hour forecast position

55 km

15 km

*Analysed position refers to the positions of windstorm fixed by the Handry Outlook based on observation data available in real-time. Such real-time positions could deviate from those obtained later through "Best Track Analysis" when more comprehensive sets of observations become available. The corresponding radius of the 'Potential Track Area' is determined from the statistics in the past years as the mean value.
 

3. Short-term erratic departure of the windstorm from the general direction of                                movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties      in locating the centre of the windstorm, and partly due to actual short-term                                variations in the direction and speed of movement of the windstorm itself.

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