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Windstorm tracker
Available when a potential windstorm has developed and might impact the British Isles.
Maximum wind gust near centre
20-59 mph
60-74 mph
75-89 mph
90-104 mph
>104 mph
Potential Track Area (70% probability)
First 48 hours
60-108 hours
Analysed location
Notes
1. Detailed information of the windstorm, including latitude, longitude, classification and the maximum wind gust near centre will be shown when placing the mouse cursor over the analysed or forecast positions. The user can use the controls on the left of the map to change the area of interest and to zoom into city or even street levels. Please bear in mind the uncertainty of the windstorms locations as described below in using this function.
2. While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the windstorm, they may deviate from the actual path of the storm. Therefore, the probable area within which the windstorm will fall with a probability of 70% are shown by the yellow shading. Literally, it means that among 10 times of track forecast for similar situations, the windstorm will be centred within the indicated area in about 7 times. The area grows as the forecast hour increases. It will be particularly larger beyond 48 hours and is indicated with lighter shadings on the map. The size in terms of radius of the 'Potential Track Area' corresponding to different forecast hours are determined from the error statistics of the forecasts issued in past years and are as shown in the following table:
Windstorm Track
Windstorm Track
Radius of 'Potential Track Area'
Analysed position
12-hour forecast position
24-hour forecast position
36-hour forecast position
48-hour forecast position
60-hour forecast position
72-hour forecast position
84-hour forecast position
96-hour forecast position
100 km
150 km
205 km
260 km
320 km
385 km
455 km
520 km
108-hour forecast position
55 km
15 km
*Analysed position refers to the positions of windstorm fixed by the Handry Outlook based on observation data available in real-time. Such real-time positions could deviate from those obtained later through "Best Track Analysis" when more comprehensive sets of observations become available. The corresponding radius of the 'Potential Track Area' is determined from the statistics in the past years as the mean value.
3. Short-term erratic departure of the windstorm from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the windstorm, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the windstorm itself.
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