Convective Outlook Issued: Enhanced risk 15/04/2026 06:00 - 16/04/2026 05:59

A cold front will move northeastward and weaken early Wednesday, introducing more moist air in its wake.

Moisture carried by southwesterly winds will provide a window for thunderstorms to break out across Ireland, eventually tracking northeast into Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland. Most Unstable CAPE (MUCAPE) may exceed 600 J/kg across inland and eastern Ireland during the afternoon. Daytime heating acting on this instability will allow thunderstorms to develop widely and become organized; non-severe strong gusts and small hail are possible.

Significant vertical cloud extent and substantial CAPE <0°C will support hail growth. This is further enhanced by steep LLLRs and strong mid-level cold air. With the freezing level ($0°C$) reached around 600mb, there is potential for low-end severe hail. Despite moderate low-level shear and weak deep-layer shear, there is scope for hail 1–2 cm in diameter, though most should remain below severe limits.

Moderate shearing should allow cells to become organized and potentially long-lived. While a saturated profile might limit the total number of cells, an isolated cell or two—especially within the enhanced risk area—could be strong enough to produce frequent lightning.

Further showers, perhaps turning into a long-lasting thunderstorm is also possible across parts of SW England and S Wales during the evening, although confidence is rather low.