Convective Outlook UPDATED: Slight risk 15/04/2025 06:00 - 16/04/2025 05:59

A surface low pressure will move into southern England, warping in a tongue of warm theta-E air mass along its warm front. Sufficient forcing behind the warm tongue will allow scattered convective showers to initiate across the English Channel and then move northward into parts of southern England. CAPE of 500-700 J/kg with moderate shearing should, in theory, allow an active cell or two to move across the eastern parts of the English Channel during the afternoon. A slight risk has been issued for parts of Kent to highlight the risk of scattered thundery showers.

Along the warm theta-E tongue, further scattered showers with isolated strikes are possible along the M4, especially toward eastern parts of SW England and parts of SE Wales. Thundery showers are likely to be embedded around the frontal triple point. High laspe rate, moderate shearing and moderate CAPE are favouring the risk of scattered (or perhaps frequent) lightning, perhaps moving from Devon into Brecon Beacons. However, the saturated profile might limit the risk slightly; hence, only a slight risk has been issued for this area.

Strong gusts of 40-50 mph are possible, especially as the low pressure develops overnight.

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