The moisture with the southwesterly wind will allow a period for thunderstorms to break out across Ireland, Northern Ireland, Wales and Western England. Most unstable convective potential energy (MUCAPE) might exceed 1200 J/kg across inland parts of Ireland in the afternoon. Daytime heating with relatively high MUCAPE will allow thunderstorms to develop widely and perhaps some organised across eastern parts of Ireland and parts of Northern Ireland, perhaps with some severe size hail as well.
Tall cloud heights and fairly substantial CAPE <0°C allow for hail growth. Along with the substantial LLLRs given strong mid-level cold in place. 0°C reached around 600MB is fairly good for low-end severe hail growth so despite the moderate low-level shear and weak deep-layer shear, this is certainly scope for some hail 1.5-2.5 cm in diameter but most hail should stay non-severe. A severe has been added for the area most likely of seeing some low-end severe hail.
Further in the Wales/ West Midlands, a narrow zone is expected to see some sporadic lightning, some of these will turn organised, as the cape will exceed 1000J/kg with moderate wind shear. There is also a risk of gusty wind (50-60mph) and some large hail (1.5-2.5cm)
possible across northern Wales/ Northwest England in the late afternoon.
There is also a slight chance of elevated thunderstorms across far southeast England in the morning, but models don't support the thundery activity will survive inland.
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