On Wednesday, Storm Gerrit is expected to bring repeated episodes of intense rainfall. The combination of strong gusts and high lapse rates creates favourable conditions for small hail formation in Ireland, Wales, and the western regions of England. Additionally, a MUCAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) range of 400-700 J/kg could lead to isolated thunderstorms developing starting from the early afternoon across the Ireland and the Irish sea. Within these heavy convective showers, exceptionally strong gusts could be embedded, reaching speeds of up to 80 mph in some areas during 21z - 03z.
Isolated waterspouts and tornadoes are also possible across 21z - 03z.
You can download the kml file of the convective outlook here
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