On Wednesday, a region of low pressure is expected to bring bands of showers. The combination of strong gusts and high lapse rates creates favourable conditions for small hail formation in Ireland, Wales, southern and western regions of England. Additionally, a MUCAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) range of 400-600 J/kg could lead to isolated thunderstorms developing starting in the early morning across Wales and parts of southern England. These storms may become more frequent over the St George Channel and English Channel due to the elevated CAPE value. Within these heavy convective showers, powerful gusts could be embedded, reaching up to 50-75 mph in some areas during the afternoon.
Isolated waterspouts or weak tornadoes are also possible.
You can download the kml file of the convective outlook here:
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