A frontal system associated with a low pressure will develop a band of heavy showers to many. Some of these showers could turn thundery, especially across the St.George's Channel and the Bristol Channel, and some of them might be able to make themselves into parts of west Wales during the early morning. Strong gusts could be embedded within these showers but most of them won't be severe.
As the band of heavy showers clears eastward over the morning, surface convection will allow scattered showers to develop. Due to the time of the year, as surface heating is still rather weak, most of these showers will not turn thundery, but perhaps one or two cells could develop in the east and deliver a few lightning strikes across the low-risk.
You can download the kml file of the convective outlook here:
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