A low pressure will develop across the Bay of Biscay due to the interaction of a strong jet stream. This will result in a band of squally showers to develop, often embedded with gusts and thunderstorms, moving from NW France into the English Channel. There is a chance of a tornado or two to develop across NW France, the Channel Islands and southern England overnight.
There is also a chance of an area of strong gust to develop as the low pressure develops, few high-resolution models are suggesting a hook-like band of rain tracking across England overnight. This is an indication of possibly localised areas of damaging gusts, potentially reaching up to 80 mph in places due to low-level jet winds being brought down to the surface by descending dry air intrusion. Tornado could also be embedded within the hook-like feature, however, the lack of CAPE inland is limiting the risk.
During Monday, further thundery showers will develop along the channel, often embedded with gusts and hail, and are expected to weaken during the evening.
You can download the kml file of the convective outlook here:
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