An area of low pressure will move into the northern parts of Scotland from the Northern Atlantic. This means heavy showers with blustery winds will move into most parts of England and Ireland.
CAPE will intensify in the late morning, allowing convectivity to develop along the north and western edge of an occluded front. MUCAPE of 400-1000 J/kg will allow sporadic thunderstorms to develop quickly, this is enhanced by the strong shear from the south, aided by convergence zones. This means a narrow corridor with a favourable environment will allow thunderstorms to develop across Scotland, Wales and northern parts of England. These thunderstorms will be rather sporadic at first but might intensify into an area of organised thunderstorms across Scotland. However, the moist profile might limit the overall lightning amount.
Further convection might lead to thunderstorms across south Wales, Ireland and southwest England overnight.
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