An occluded front bringing showers across parts of southeast England during the morning will weaken over the late morning, leaving behind a capped atmosphere. CAPE will continue to build, perhaps reaching 800 J/kg locally during the early afternoon, until a convergence zone develops, producing enough lift and updraft, hence releasing those capped energies. Heavy showers and thunderstorms will develop rapidly across northern parts of the slight risk during the first half of the afternoon and slowly move and expand southwestward along the convergence zone. Frequent lightning and small hail are possible within these thunderstorms, where flooding is also possible, given the slow-moving nature of these showers.
Thunderstorm and shower activity is expected to diminish over the early night.
You can download the kml file of the convective outlook here:
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