On Saturday afternoon, a moist southerly wind will allow heavy showers to develop along the M4 and East Midlands. An area of forcing, perhaps accomplished with one or two convergence zones, will allow updraft, overcoming the surface cap. Widespread 400-600 J/kg CAPE will be sufficient for a few strikes to develop, locally frequent. A few hail showers are possible within the heaviest showers as well.
A few lightning strikes are also possible across Kent as surface storms across northern France will move northward during the evening.
You can download the kml file of the convective outlook here:
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