An occluded front will move northwestward and weaken on late Thursday/ early Friday, which introduces moisture to Ireland, Northern Ireland, Wales and England.
The moisture with the southerly wind will allow a period for thunderstorms to break out across parts of Ireland, Northern Ireland, England and Wales. Most unstable convective potential energy (MUCAPE) might exceed 1000 J/kg across parts of England. Daytime heating with relatively high MUCAPE will allow thunderstorms to develop widely across England, this perhaps turning severe, if not, organised across eastern parts of midlands and eastern parts of England, perhaps with some marginally severe size hail as well. Hence a high-end slight risk has been issued across most parts of England, with an area of most likely area of lightning and severe warning for heavy rain covering eastern parts of England (which might be updated into a low-end enhanced risk if confidence increase).
At the moment, there is some uncertainty about the amount of convective activity across Ireland and Northern Ireland, as the amount of cloud coverage might limit the amount of lightning, therefore a low-end slight has been issued for parts of Ireland and Northern Ireland.
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