Convective Outlook Issued: Moderate risk 19/05/2025 06:00 - 20/05/2025 05:59

An upper cold pool will allow a steep lapse rate and MUCAPE to develop as daytime surface heating builds up over the afternoon. MUCAPE of 500-700 J/kg across Ireland, with rather strong low-level and deep-level shearing and a dry atmospheric profile, suggests thunderstorms will easily develop and become long-living. As these thunderstorms will be slow-moving, localised flooding is possible, as there is a risk of >30mm of rain within 3 hours in some of the slow-moving thunderstorms. Small hail is also possible in some of the strongest thunderstorms.

Further thunderstorms are also possible across parts of NW England and SW Scotland during the evening, and locally frequent lightning is possible.

You can download the kml file of the convective outlook here:

Download here