Convective Outlook Issued: High risk 13/07/2025 06:00 - 14/07/2025 05:59

A cluster of thunderstorms will rapidly develop across northern parts of Ireland over the afternoon along the edge of a cold front. MUCAPE of 1200-1500 J/kg will be sufficient for active thunderstorm development. A shallow cap will be eroded during the early afternoon once surface heating is sufficient. Steep /very steep lapse rate will be sufficient to support frequent lightning and large hail, even when background shearing is insufficient for this setup. One or two supercells are possible in the high risk during the later parts of the afternoon, potentially bringing 2-3 cm hail in diameter and perhaps a brief tornado. Localised flooding is possible, given the slow-moving nature of these thunderstorms due to a lack of shearing and moderate PWAT of around mid-30 mm (the risk of flooding is also enhanced by the recent dry weather).

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