An upper low will move north-eastward on Monday night, introducing moisture to southern and central parts of the UK.
At first, some elevated thunderstorms are possible across parts of central-south England and southeast England as a fairly notable warm nose in the 900-950 hPa layer and an environment with 20-30kts effective shear move in, some sporadic lightning is possible hence a slight risk has been issued.
The cap is expected to break on mid-afternoon, which allows thunderstorms to break out across East Anglia and Northeast England. CAPE (800-1000 J/kg), aids with daytime surface heating and might allow some stronger thunderstorms in places. Temperature of 22-25C allows instability to build widely. However, the over-saturated profile will limit the overall convective activity which stop me from issuing an enhanced risk.
Further thunderstorms are likely across the mid-afternoon in parts of the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which hail and heavy rain might cause localised disruption.
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