Convective Outlook Issued: Enhanced risk 11/05/2025 06:00 - 12/05/2025 05:59

A warm front will deliver heavy rain across southwest England on Sunday. A plume of warm, moist air with high theta-e values will follow, interacting with diurnal heating to produce MUCAPE of 500–700 J/kg across the West Midlands and Wales. A nearly saturated environment will limit widespread thunderstorm development, but orographic lift and sea breeze convergence along coastal Wales will trigger thunderstorms by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected in these areas, but limited deep-layer shear will result in short-lived storms. Slow-moving cells, enhanced by sea breeze convergence, may cause localised flooding, with hail of 1–1.5 cm possible in the strongest storms.

Overnight, elevated thunderstorms from northern France may move northwest into the English Channel, potentially bringing isolated lightning strikes to England’s south coast.

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