Overnight Monday into Tuesday, multiple occluded fronts and troughs may lead to widespread showers, particularly along the south coast and eastern areas. A low-pressure system across the Celtic Sea will pull in moisture, resulting in heavy rain and the potential for flooding, gusty wind and hail. There's also a small chance of funnel clouds or weak tornadoes due to the strong shearing.
Much of southern and central England could see several rounds of showers, with sufficient instability (over 1000 J/KG of MUCAPE) for thunderstorm development. Most frequent lightning is expected across the enhanced risk during the late afternoon, as the occluded fronts will interact with the sufficient MUCAPE. While there may be some lightning, strong saturation could limit its intensity.
You can download the kml file of the convective outlook here:
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