A very complex forecast with low confidence with the exact location of the thunderstorm. We are expected to see two rounds of thunderstorms at night as a band of heavy rain reacts to mild southeasterly wind. Therefore a large slight risk and two areas of enhanced risk have been issued for parts of the south and east.
A band of heavy rain with push up from the Celtic sea to the west (Ireland, West Wales, Southwest England) in the afternoon, with the potential of a few thunderstorms embedded within it. Therefore a slight risk has been issued for these areas. However, the trailing cold front across England and Wales is expected to be fairly weak through most of the daytime hours as dry air overruns leaving just shallow moisture, which might limit lightning activity.
There is a sign of a convergence zone developing across northwest France and moving north/ northwest to parts of Dorset in the late afternoon, with CAPE of 800 - 1200 J/kg, creating a cluster of thunderstorms pushing inland, perhaps reaching the M4 motorway, which might create traffic issue in the rush hours. Therefore an enhanced risk of thunderstorms has been issued for parts of southwest England.
Into midnight, there is a sign of another convergence zone developing across Northeast England, with the potential of remaining bands of showers quickly developing into thunderstorms again. Some of them might develop across Scotland but confidence is very low. An enhanced risk has been issued for parts of southeast England and a slight risk for most of the east coast and parts of Scotland.
Issued at: 08:40 (BST) 04/09/2022
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