An area of unseasonably deep low pressure will move into the British Isles from Northern Atlantic, where a warm theta-e southwesterly plume will be introduced by the active warm front. This means heavy showers with blustery winds will move North into most parts of England and Ireland. Sporadic elevated thunderstorms might develop inland if instability is high enough. Models are suggesting MUCAPE of 150-350 J/kg widely, which means the risk of connectivity is high enough for elevated thunderstorms on Tuesday night. Two slight risks have been issued across the highest CAPE areas to highlight the highest risk of thunderstorms, but the overall amount of thunderstorm activity is uncertain, especially across Northern England.
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