The rainy summer was a change of pace from the usual hot, dry season. While some found it dreary, others welcomed the refreshing smell of wet earth and greenery. It also brought new life to plants and trees. However, a change is expected to arrive this week, where hotter-than-average temperatures are expected with very little or no rain for most.
The jet stream, which dominates the summer with wet and windy spells, is expected to shift northward due to tropical cyclone Franklin. This allows the build-up of the high pressure, allowing settle and hot conditions to develop for many parts of the UK and Ireland. Starting this weekend, as high pressure is established, we can anticipate the emergence of stable and pleasant weather conditions across the majority of the UK next week. This period will also bring about a notable increase in temperatures. Most regions can look forward to experiencing maximum temperatures exceeding 25°C for an extended duration, potentially leading to heatwave-like conditions in some locations. It's important to note that the highest temperatures are expected in the southern and eastern parts of England, which also have relatively higher temperature thresholds for officially declaring a heatwave. Consequently, while certain areas might fall just short of meeting the strict heatwave criteria, many regions will still enjoy a delightful stretch of weather characterized by abundant sunshine and the warmest temperatures they've witnessed since June or early July.
Meanwhile, we anticipate a growing prevalence of thundery showers over portions of the UK and Ireland commencing on Wednesday. Initially, this activity will be concentrated in the southern and western regions, with the potential for a more widespread occurrence by the weekend. This shift can be attributed to the interaction between a relatively warm air mass and moisture from the jet stream, resulting in an escalation of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). In certain areas, the Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy (MUCAPE) is projected to increase, possibly exceeding 1500 J/kg. This heightened instability in the air mass is conducive to the development of severe thunderstorms, posing a risk of strong gusts, hail, and flooding locally.
Our team is maintaining a vigilant watch on the situation and is contemplating the issuance of an extreme heat warning for the upcoming week. We strongly recommend subscribing to our website to stay updated with our latest convective outlook, especially given the elevated risk of severe thunderstorms later this week.
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