Introducing HOCO: Our Newest Model for Accurate Thunderstorm Forecasting

HOCO Model

HOCO is our first model developed to deliver accurate thunderstorm forecasts for the British Isles. It uses an ensemble approach by incorporating various other models to create a precise thunderstorm risk map. This integrated approach ensures that the predictions are robust and reliable, leveraging the strengths of multiple forecasting methods.

We have run the HOCO model multiple times over the past week to determine the optimal weighting factors for each contributing model, ensuring the highest quality of forecasts. Below are some example forecasts generated by the model, accompanied by detected lightning strike maps for validation.

We are currently working on adding more parameters to the model and improving its accuracy. To provide more updated and accurate details, we will begin posting the HOCO model run results on our website and on X.