An area of unseasonably deep low pressure which is named Storm Antoni will move into the British Isles from Northern Atlantic, where a warm theta-e southwesterly plume will be introduced by the occluded fronts. This means heavy showers with blustery winds will move into most parts of England and Ireland.
Starting from the early afternoon, clouds across southern England and parts ofthe Midlands will start to break as the front move eastward and decay. This means surface heating will starts and erode the shallow mid-level CAP, therefore CAPE will intensify in the early afternoon, allowing convectivity to develop along the southern edge of an occluded front. MUCAPE of 400-100 J/kg will allow sporadic thunderstorms to develop quickly, where this is enhanced by the strong shear from the south, as well as the convergence zones/ centre of Storm Antoni in the Midlands. This means a narrow corridor with a favourable environment will allow thunderstorms to develop. These thunderstorms will be rather sporadic at first but might intensify into an area of organised thunderstorms when they move east. However, very moist profile might limit the overall lightning amount.
In the meantime, blustery showers will develop along the south coasts, bringing some gusty wind (50-65 mph) in places.
Thunderstorms will start to weaken in the early night due to the reduction of surface heating.
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