A complex frontal system will allow milder air mass to push in from the southwest, allowing some convective showers to develop, potentially bringing some scattered thunderstorms across SW England and Wales in the morning. Shallow CAPE with strong low and deep level shearing will provide an ideal environment for scattered thunderstorms to develop locally. This will often embedded with small hail and strong gusts.
As the cold front advances eastward, strong shear will develop across southern England. Few high-resolution models suggest that one or two thundery cells will be long-lived, tracking from the Bristol channel into south of London. Given the extremely sheared environment, a tornado or two might develop alongside these cells.
You can download the kml file of the convective outlook here:
Comentarios