On Wednesday night and Thursday, a shortwave associated with an area of low pressure is expected to bring frequent heavy showers across southern England and parts of Wales. The strong gusts and steep lapse rates create favourable conditions for small hail to form within the heaviest showers. Additionally, CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) of 600-1000 J/kg will be sufficient for (strong) thunderstorm development. These storms may become more frequent over parts of the Celtic Sea and Cornwall. Strong deep-level shear will also increase the lifespan of thunderstorms. Strong gusts could be embedded within these heavy convective showers, reaching up to 60 mph in places.
Isolated waterspouts/tornadoes are also possible.
You can download the kml file of the convective outlook here:
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