A weakening occluded front will move westward on early Tuesday, which introduces moisture to southern and central parts of UK.
The cap is expected to be break on late morning, which allow thunderstorms to break out across parts of southwest England. CAPE ( 700-1200 J/kg), aid with daytime surface heating, might allow some stronger thunderstorms in places. Dew points of 10-12C allows instability to build widely. Mid-level atmosphere is not saturated which allows parcels to escalate.
Few convergence zone might also boost lightning activity, one of them confine to the immediate south coast, ridging from Cornwall into Bournemouth/ Southampton. An enhanced risk has been issued for these areas as frequent clusters of thunderstorms are likely to develop there, with one or two turning slightly more organised across south Devon, which will bring locally high rainfall amount and a risk of small hail.
Majority of models suggesting a larger cluster of thunderstorms initialling in Devon, and catch up with the instability across East Wales/ West Midlands, then develop into a multicellular system which might rapidly develop in the early afternoon. This cluster of thunderstorms will move east /southeast into London/ Surrey in the mid afternoon, than exit across parts of East Anglia in the evening/ early night. The strongest cross model agreement of thunderstorms is across Oxford, Luton, London, (and perhaps Essex as well). An enhanced risk has been issued for these area due to the risk of strong thunderstorms, with risk of gusty wind.
A slight risk has also been issued for eastern parts of Ireland and Northern Ireland due to the high instability, sporadic lightning, perhaps with few hail showers is possible in places.
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