A weak low-pressure system over France will develop a band of heavy rain and thunderstorms across central England during the day on Sunday. Thunderstorms that have matured over France are drifting northward into southern England, following a warm theta-E plume. MUCAPE values of around 500 J/kg will fuel the development of heavy rain into thunderstorms, particularly on the eastern side of the system, where MUCAPE could exceed 1000 J/kg. Elevated thunderstorms are expected to move into Dorset, Wiltshire, Somerset, Bristol, and Gloucestershire, with the potential for some showers to redevelop into thunderstorms as they progress into the West Midlands during the afternoon. With PWAT values exceeding 45 mm and converging winds, these thunderstorms are expected to be slow-moving and carry a large amount of moisture, raising the risk of localized flooding, as more than 50 mm of rain could fall in some areas over the course of Sunday.
Strong convective inhibition is likely to limit the development of new thunderstorms in the east, but any that do manage to form could be particularly active and severe. Some models indicate a risk of thunderstorms developing across Lincolnshire on Sunday night, moving northward into the North Sea. This will largely depend on the eastern extent of the main elevated thunderstorms; if they track slightly further west, the chance of significant thunderstorms in eastern England and East Anglia will increase significantly due to decreased cloud cover, saturation, and capping. An update might be needed to adjust the risk across eastern parts of England, depending on the direction and size of the main plume.
You can download the kml file of the convective outlook here:
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