December: Average precipitation and temperature in the north
Perhaps colder and drier in the south.
Higher than normal risk of wintry weather, especially the after the first week of the month.
Calmer than normal in the north and west.
Chance of easterly wind starting in the third week of the month
^ 500 hPa anomaly 2022 December forecast. *EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT*
January: Continually dry and settled in the first part of the month, perhaps turning windier later in the north and west. Turning slightly milder and slightly wetter than average across Ireland and Scotland Average precipitation and the average temperature in England and Wales. Perhaps slightly colder and drier than average in the far SE at the start of the month February: Weak signal. Perhaps remain dry for most and slightly wetter than average across Ireland Milder and slightly wetter than average across Ireland and Scotland Average precipitation and average temperature across England and Wales Overall, there is a significant NW-SE split in the oncoming winter. With milder and perhaps wetter than average in the NW and drier and perhaps slightly colder than average in parts of England, which is most significant across East Anglia, Eastern Midland, and Southeast England.
^ 500 hPa anomaly 2022-23 DJF forecast. *EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT*
^ Most similar years compared to our 500 hPa anomaly product for winter
^2m mean temperature anomaly forecast for 2023 winter *EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT* Issued on: 20/11/2022
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