An occluded front will move northwestward and weaken on Sunday morning, which introduces moisture to Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland. Firstly, this occluded front might bring in some elevated thunderstorms in the early hours of Sunday, however, the confidence of the amount of lightning activity is relatively low so a low risk is tentatively introduced to parts of southwest and western Ireland.
The moisture with the southerly wind will allow a period for thunderstorms to break out across Ireland, Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland. Most unstable convective potential energy (MUCAPE) might exceed 1000 J/kg across inland and eastern parts of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Daytime heating with relatively high MUCAPE will allow thunderstorms to develop widely across Northern Ireland, this perhaps turning severe, if not, organised across eastern parts of Ireland and most parts of Northern Ireland, perhaps with some marginally severe size hail as well. Hence a high-end slight risk has been issued across parts of Northern Ireland, with a large area of most likely area of lightning covering Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland.
At the moment, there is some uncertainty about the amount of convective activity across northeast England, as the amount of cloud coverage might limit the amount of lightning, therefore a most likely area of lightning has been issued at the moment.
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