An upper-air low pool will gradually move west over Friday, bringing an occluded front across central and northern England, northern Wales and Ireland. This will provide a warm sector across southern England and Wales, bringing a risk of thunderstorms in places.
MUCAPE will increase in the late morning across East Midland and East Anglia, perhaps widely reaching 400-600 J/Kg, this will allow convective showers to develop starting in the late morning, perhaps bringing a few sporadic lightning strikes in places.
Due to surface heating in the afternoon, the potential energy for convection will gradually increase, bringing a higher risk of thunderstorms across parts of West Midland, south Wales, and southwest England. These thunderstorms might turn increasingly organised, hence a slight risk has been issued for parts of the west. A severe risk for heavy rain is also issued as torrential downpour is possible in places.
Overnight, another warm sector will slide through East Anglia, which allows the decaying occluded front to produce some thunderstorms, these thunderstorms will unlikely to be organised, but the risk of thunderstorms is slightly higher there, hence a low-end slight has been issued for parts of East Anglia and Southeast England.
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