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Convective Outlook UPDATED: Slight risk 14/07/23 0600 - 15/07/23 0559 (Day 0 Outlook)

An area of low pressure will develop and bring a band of heavy showers to much of the British Isles. These showers might turn into elevated thunderstorms in places, but the confidence is low, so a slight risk has been issued for parts of southern England. Gusty winds are also likely across southwest England and Wales, where 40-50 mph are possible.

There is a period of instability across parts of the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland as the rain will start to clear there in the late afternoon, with CAPE of 800-1000 J/kg with moderate shearing favouring a narrow area for thunderstorms to develop. These thunderstorms will move from south to north, starting from late afternoon into the night. Some gusty wind, localised flooding and hail are all possible, therefore a slight risk has been issued.





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