An area of developing low pressure will rapidly deepen and deliver rounds of heavy downpours on Tuesday night, these will eventually clear at midnight, providing a period for convective showers to develop across the Celtic Sea before sunrise. Strong gusts with high lapse rates can provide an ideal environment for small hail to develop in Ireland, Wales and England, MUCAPE of 400-600 J/kg also allows scattered thunderstorms to develop in the morning across Wales and parts of southwest England. The update extent the slight risk to northwest England
The main uncertainty is the extent of convective activity across the Midlands and southeast England as oversaturated profiles might limit the amount of connectivity. However, strong wind shear accomplished with moderate CAPE might increase the potential of thunderstorms. Hodographs and critical angles do suggest a slight risk of tornadoes across these area as well, hence severe weather for risk of tornadoes has been issued for some.
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