Convective Outlook UPDATED: Moderate risk 13/05/2025 06:00 - 14/05/2025 05:59

UPDATE 1 (13/05/2025 12:15)

A moderate risk has been issued due to the increased confidence of large hail, frequent lightning and flooding.

A warm and moist theta-e airmass, delivered by a frontal system on Sunday, will continue to enhance instability during Tuesday daytime. MUCAPE of 500–1000 J/kg supports the potential for numerous scattered thunderstorms in a moist environment with high low-level humidity. Cloud tops could once again exceed 36,000 ft, supporting frequent lightning.

Moderate low-level, and mid-level wind shear along a convergence zone will support long-lasting thunderstorms, but a rather saturated atmosphere will slightly reduce the risk of frequent lightning compared to Monday's risk.

Flash flooding is possible as the convergence zone allows thunderstorms to train over a small corridor. Hail, up to 2 cm in diameter, is also possible in the strongest cells. Funnel clouds or even a tornado are possible across parts of Wales and Ireland, considering the background shear.

Generally speaking, lightning activity is expected to be less than Monday for most, but a cell or two capable of producing frequent lightning is still possible to develop during the mid-afternoon before the environment turns saturated.

You can download the kml file of the convective outlook here:

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