Update: Given to the latest radar, the ENHANCED risk for the west has been extended more to the south as thunderstorms is very likely to occur. An supercell risk has been issued for parts of SE England as well
Updated at: 04:45 (BST) 23/10/2022
The low pressure will further develop across the Celtic sea and is likely to settle in the west of Ireland for a couple of days. In this period, longer spells of heavy rain are likely across parts of Wales, southwest England, and Ireland, with a risk of heavy and thundery showers affecting other parts of England too. Strong winds are also likely in places especially across the seashore, perhaps with a risk of gales too. There is potential for a few shortwave features to develop across the southwest/central south on Wednesday night, which creates some cooling aloft and combines with temperature advection in 850mb, further creating mid/or elevated amount of instability toward Sunday night There will be a warm front spreading over the West in the morning, with the potential for sporadic lightning and heavy rain developing across SW England, Ireland, and Wales. Considering the skinny cape and profiles, the risk of well-developed cell development across the SW is quite low, although some models are suggesting some president thundery showers curving across the Bristol Channel and S Wales, so the risk of convective weather cannot be ignore, hence a SLIGHT risk has been issued widely across England and Wales.
Later in the morning into early afternoon, there is a risk of CAPE redevelop across Somerset and push to Wales by a N direction as surface heating, this which might give a environment for one or two short living cells develop across Gloucestershire and Wales. Therefore, an LOW-END ENHANCED risk has been issued for these areas.
The low pressure will further develop across the Celtic sea and is likely to settle in the west of Ireland for a couple of days. In this period, longer spells of heavy rain are likely across parts of Wales, southwest England, and Ireland, with a risk of heavy and thundery showers affecting other parts of England too. Strong winds are also likely in places especially across the seashore, perhaps with a risk of gales too. There is potential for a few shortwave features to develop across the southwest/central south on Wednesday night, which creates some cooling aloft and combines with temperature advection in 850mb, further creating mid/or elevated amount of instability toward Sunday night There will be a warm front spreading over the West in the morning, with the potential for sporadic lightning and heavy rain developing across SW England, Ireland, and Wales. Considering the skinny cape and profiles, the risk of well-developed cell development across the SW is quite low, although some models are suggesting some president thundery showers curving across the Bristol Channel and S Wales, so the risk of convective weather cannot be ignore, hence a SLIGHT risk has been issued widely across England and Wales.
At the meantime, a Spanish Plume will bring few cells of elevated thunderstorms to the SE and develop and expanding NE toward the night, with AROME suggesting 800-1000 J/KG MUCAPE and strong cross-models agreement, an ENHANCED risk has been issued for these areas. However models are struggling to show the N and perhaps W extend of the elevated thunderstorms, so cells develop outside the ENHANCED risk is possible, hence a large area of SLIGHT risk has been issued for most of the England.
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