UPDATE: According to the latest high-res models suggesting a significantly higher amount of MUCAPE, perhaps reaching 1000-1200 J/kg, therefore the ENHANCED risk area has been expanded significantly.
A severe thunderstorm risk has also been issued across parts of Cork and Midleton as there is a potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms/ heavy showers being slow moving across these areas causing localised flooding
Updated at: 05:18 (BST) 18/10/2022
A low pressure will develop across the Celtic sea and is likely to move and settle in the west of Ireland for a couple of days early next week. In this period, longer spells of heavy rain are likely across parts of Wales, southwest England, and Northern Ireland, with a risk of heavy and thundery showers affecting other parts of England too. Strong winds are also likely in places especially across the seashore, perhaps with a risk of gales too. Temperature is expected to be around average with a risk of slightly lower than average in parts of the west and Wales as longer spells of rain might cause the temperature to decrease.
There are multiple bands of fonts that develop into heavy showers across the south and west starting from Tuesday night into Thursday morning, some of them might be quite active and thundery too. A shortwave feature is likely to develop across the southwest on Tuesday night into Wednesday late morning, which creates some cooling aloft and combines with temperature advection in 850mb, further creating mid/or elevated amount of instablity.
The latest AROME has suggested MUCAPE around 400-600 in places across parts of SW England and Ireland, allowing thunderstorms to break out in places.
This convective outlook is focused on Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon, with high cross-model agreement and considering the MUCAPE and 850mb temperature, two ENHANCED risks have been issued, one across Plymouth and Dorset, and one across Gwynedd and Wexford. A board area of SLIGHT risk has also been issued, covering most of Wales and SW England, as there are risks of potent thunderstorms breaking out in multiple places.
Another convective outlook for Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning will be issued on Tuesday night, as another similar shortwave will be across parts of the south and Midlands.
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