An upper low will move north-eastward on Sunday afternoon which introduces moisture to southern and central parts of the UK.
At first, some elevated thunderstorms are possible across parts of southeast England as a fairly notable warm nose in the 900-950 hPa layer and an environment with 20-30kts effective shear move in, some sporadic lightning is possible hence a slight risk has been issued.
The cap is expected to break on mid-afternoon, which allows thunderstorms to break out across central England and parts of Wales. CAPE (1000-1500 J/kg), aids with daytime surface heating and might allow some stronger thunderstorms in places. Temperature of 25-28C allows instability to build widely.
The majority of models suggesting clusters of thunderstorms will first develop across central southern England, then turn increasingly widespread in the late afternoon. These clusters of thunderstorms will move north slowly in mid-afternoon, which increases the risk of gusty wind, some hail and flooding. A severe risk for flooding has been issued as there is a chance of 20-40 mm of rain within 3 hours, perhaps 60 mm in places across the Midlands and Northwest England. These thunderstorms will turn into a band of heavy rain overnight, which brings more rain to the north.
Further thunderstorms are likely across the mid-afternoon in parts of the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which large hail and heavy rain might cause localised disruption, hence a severe risk and an enhanced risk has been issued for some of these areas.
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