Convective Outlook Updated: Enhanced risk 08/05/23 0600 - 09/05/23 0559 (Day 1 Outlook)

A cold front will move northwestward and weaken on Monday morning, which introduces moisture to Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

The moisture with the southwesterly wind will allow a period for thunderstorms to break out across Ireland, Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland. Most unstable convective potential energy (MUCAPE) might exceed 1000 J/kg across inland and eastern parts of Ireland in the afternoon. Daytime heating with relatively high MUCAPE will allow thunderstorms to develop widely and organise across eastern parts of Ireland and most parts of Northern Ireland, perhaps with some severe size hail as well. Hence a high-end slight risk has been issued across parts of Northern Ireland, Ireland and the central belt.

Models are showing potential two bands of thunderstorms, one across Northern Ireland and weaken across the central belt at early night. CAPE might exceed 1000 J/kg which allows some thunderstorms to develop, however, the relatively weak shear might not allow thunderstorms to turn organised, but there is still a risk of few stronger cells developing in places, hence a low-end enhanced risk has been issued for parts of northern Ireland.

Another area of potentially strong thunderstorms is across central and eastern parts of Ireland. A high CAPE amount with stronger shearing might allow some stronger and organised thunderstorms to develop, perhaps with a risk of supercell as well. Therefore, an enhanced risk has been issued for the potential development of thunderstorms across central and eastern Ireland.

Tall cloud heights and fairly substantial CAPE <0°C allows for hail growth. Along with the substantial LLLR's given strong mid-level cold in place. 0°C reached around 600MB is fairly good for low-end severe hail growth so despite the moderate low-level shear and weak deep-layer shear, this is certainly scope for some hail 2-2.5 cm in diameter but most hail should stay non-severe. A severe outline has been added for the area most likely of seeing some low-end severe hail.

An update might be followed at Monday morning.