Scattered showers will develop widely in the late morning inland, perhaps turning heavy and thundery in parts of England and Wales. Most models suggest the potential of MUCAPE exceeds 700 J/kg across Oxford, Salisbury, Canterbury and Brighton, hence a "most likely area of lightning" has been issued for these areas. These areas will most likely see (long-lasting) thunderstorms and heavy showers, bringing a risk of localised flooding. Some models are also suggesting a convergence zone across parts of southeast England, which increases the potential of stronger cells to develop here in the late afternoon. There is some uncertainty on the amount of convective activity across Lincolnshire/ Norfolk as the amount of cloud covering might limit the amount of thundery activity. The most likely scenario is initial thundery showers will merge into larger areas of heavy rain across these areas.
Issued at: 05/04/2023 23:45 (BST) Version: 3
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