The remains of storm Oscar will develop across the Celtic sea and is likely to move and settle in the southwest of Ireland from Friday night to Saturday. In this period, longer spells of heavy rain are likely across parts of Ireland and southwest England.
The latest model runs forecast inland parts of England might exceed 26C, perhaps reaching 28-30C in places. The combination of high moisture and temperature allows high CAPE values, which are most likely to exceed 1000 J/kg across central southern England, Wales and the Midlands, perhaps reaching 1700 J/kg in places. This will allow thunderstorms to break out across the northeastern edge of the occluded front. High cross-model agreement and considering the MUCAPE and 850mb temperature, an ENHANCED risk has been issued for parts of northwest England, West Midlands and Wales. Two border areas of SLIGHT risk have also been issued, covering most of England, Wales and parts of Ireland, as there are risks of potent thunderstorms breaking out in multiple places.
Skew-t diagrams suggest a low risk of high precipitation supercell in the ENHANCED risks areas, or training effects might occur in places, especially across Wales and West Midlands, hence two areas of severe weather risk have been issued, which mainly focus on the risk of localised flooding.
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