During the late morning, inland scattered showers may escalate into heavy thunderstorms over parts of Wales and southwest England. While brief and scattered initially, they could become more organized in and might even produce hail. Simultaneously, there's an increased likelihood of well-organized heavy showers evolving into thunderstorm areas over the English Channel, driven by rising CAPE levels (up to 1000 J/kg). This situation could lead to frequent lightning along southern coasts and localized flooding. Later in the afternoon, additional showers along the occluded front might transform into local thunderstorms, posing a flooding risk in South Wales, with up to 30 mm of rain possible within 6 hours.
You can download the kml file of the convective outlook here
(You can upload the file to windy.com to have the graphic overlay)
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