On Sunday, Storm Isha is expected to bring repeated episodes of intense rainfall. The combination of strong shearing and marginal cape creates favorable conditions for isolated thunderstorms formation in Ireland, Wales, and the western regions of England. These thunderstorms are likely to develop starting from the late afternoon across western Ireland, moving eastward toward northern England and Scotland. Within these heavy convective showers, exceptionally strong gusts could be embedded, reaching speeds of up to 80-90 mph in some areas.
As the cold front crosses the St George's Channel in the early afternoon, it is expected to become more active, with isolated thunderstorms developing behind the cold front. Few line convection is expected to form across Ireland, moving eastward overnight. Coastal areas may experience gusts of 70-80 mph, perhaps 90-100 mph locally, with inland areas of England widely encountering gusts of 55-65 mph. Intense rainfall and small hail are also potential concerns. There is a risk of tornadoes in Ireland and Northern Ireland during the late afternoon and early night.
Research on Synoptic-Scale Environments and Precipitation Morphologies of Tornado Outbreaks from Quasi-Linear Convective Systems in the United Kingdom indicates that tornado outbreaks, defined as days with three or more tornadoes, often occur in convective storms with heavy precipitation over a line exceeding 100 km. This suggests that tornadoes in such a setup are not uncommon.
You can download the KML file of the convective outlook here:
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