On Friday, an area of low pressure is expected to bring bands of showers. The strong shearing and high lapse rates create favourable conditions for small hail embedded within heavy showers across parts of England and Ireland. Additionally, MUCAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) range of 400-600 J/kg could lead to isolated thunderstorms developing starting in the early afternoon across southwest England within the occluded front. These storms may become long-lasting in places due to the strong deep-level shear, however, the lack of MUCAPE might limit the amount of lightning and cloud top. Elsewhere, daytime heating with some moisture convergence zone could allow some isolated thunderstorms to develop, most likely across western parts of Ireland and eastern parts of England. Within these heavy convective showers, powerful gusts could be embedded, reaching up to 45-55 mph in some areas of the English Channel during the late evening and early night.
Overnight, there is a low risk of weak elevated thunderstorms across parts of the southeastern coasts.
Isolated waterspouts or weak tornados are also possible.
You can download the kml file of the convective outlook here:
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