On Thursday, a region of low pressure is expected to bring repeated episodes of intense rainfall. The combination of strong gusts and high lapse rates creates favorable conditions for small hail formation in Ireland, Wales, and western regions of England. Additionally, a MUCAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) range of 600-1000 J/kg could lead to isolated thunderstorms developing in late morning across Wales and parts of southwest England. These storms may become more frequent over the Bristol Channel due to the elevated CAPE value. Within these heavy convective showers, exceptionally strong gusts could be embedded, reaching speeds of up to 80 mph in some areas during the afternoon.
Isolated waterspouts are also possible, especially across the AOI.
You can download the kml file of the convective outlook here:
(You can upload the file to windy.com to have the graphic overlay)
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