A cold front is anticipated to stall over the northwestern regions of Scotland, potentially giving rise to afternoon showers. In many western parts of the UK and Ireland, the CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is projected to exceed 1500 J/kg. When combined with the influence of the cold front, there is a possibility of robust thunderstorms materializing, starting in Ireland and advancing eastward toward the St George Channel. The extent of lightning activity and its severity carries some uncertainty, but there is a risk of prolonged thunderstorm activity, potentially coalescing into a cluster during the evening. As a result, a high-end slight risk and an AOI (Area of Interest) have been issued. These storms could bring heavy rainfall and marginally severe hail (up to 1.5 cm in diameter).
There is also a risk of strong thunderstorms developing across parts of West Midlands into Lincolnshire, where there is a low chance of isolated supercell developing across the AOI, bringing a risk of severe size hail (up to 3 cm in diameter), as well as localised heavy rain, leading to flooding.
An upper trough is poised to transport a substantial Theta-E airmass, ushering in warm moisture along the Celtic Sea and portions of the English Channel. MLCAPE values are forecasted to locally surpass 1000 J/kg, prompting the development of isolated showers along the upper trough. These showers are expected to progress northward at a gradual pace overnight.
Soundings indicate the possibility of a shallow cap in the early night, with most models suggesting its eventual erosion. This cap breaking could lead to the rapid transformation of isolated showers into an organized system, with the potential for frequent lightning, robust gusts, and heavy downpours.
You can download the kml file of the convective outlook here
(You can upload the file to windy.com to have the graphic overlay)
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