A cold front is anticipated to stall over the northwestern regions of Scotland, potentially giving rise to afternoon showers. In many western parts of the UK and Ireland, the CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is projected to exceed 1200 J/kg. When combined with the influence of the cold front, there is a possibility of robust thunderstorms materializing, starting in Ireland and Northern Ireland and advancing northeastward toward Scotland. The extent of lightning activity and its severity carries some uncertainty, but there is a risk of prolonged thunderstorm activity, potentially coalescing into a cluster during the evening, particularly in parts of western Scotland. As a result, a high-end slight risk and an AOI (Area of Interest) have been issued. These storms could bring heavy rainfall, marginally severe hail (up to 1.5 cm in diameter), and gusty winds.
Simultaneously, a substantial amount of CAPE (>1000 J/kg) is forecasted to develop in western areas of England and Wales. However, there is a shallow cap in place, which may initially impede convective activity. Most models, however, indicate that the cap will erode in the early evening, potentially giving rise to thunderstorms in the vicinity of the Bristol Channel and surrounding regions. If these thunderstorms materialize, they are likely to become severe, with the potential for large hail (up to 2.5 cm in diameter), localized flooding, and gusty winds. These thunderstorms may cluster and persist overnight across Wales, southwest England, and the West Midlands, driven by another influx of warm theta-E.
You can download the kml file of the convective outlook here
(You can upload the file to windy.com to have the graphic overlay)
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