A cold front will move northwestward and weaken on Monday morning, which introduces moisture to Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland.
The moisture with the southwesterly wind will allow a period for thunderstorms to break out across Ireland, Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland. Most unstable convective potential energy (MUCAPE) might exceed 1000 J/kg across inland and eastern parts of Ireland in the afternoon. Daytime heating with relatively high MUCAPE will allow thunderstorms to develop widely and organise across eastern parts of Ireland and most parts of Northern Ireland, perhaps with some severe size hail as well. Hence a high-end slight risk has been issued across parts of Northern Ireland, Ireland and the central belt with two most likely areas of lightning covering Northern Ireland and Ireland.
Models are showing potential two bands of thunderstorms, one across Northern Ireland and weaken across the central belt in the evening. CAPE might exceed 800 J/kg which allows some thunderstorms to develop, however, the relatively weak shear might not allow any thunderstorms to turn organised, but there is still a risk of few strong cells developing in places.
Another area of potentially strong thunderstorms is across central and eastern parts of Ireland. A high CAPE amount with moderately strong shear might allow some stronger and organised thunderstorms to develop, these thunderstorms might also mix with some severe size hail (2cm) in the stronger core, hence a severe hail risk has been issued in places. An enhanced risk might be issued for the thunderstorms across eastern Ireland when confidence increase.
An update will be followed at Sunday evening.
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