On Saturday night into Sunday morning, Storm Kathleen is expected to bring repeated episodes of intense rainfall. The combination of strong gusts and high lapse rates creates favourable conditions for small hail formation in Ireland, Wales, and northwest England.
An occluded front will advance NNE into parts of SW England and Wales during the early night. MUCAPE (Multi-layer Convective Available Potential Energy) range of 100-300 J/kg could allow weak elevated thunderstorms in places, especially across southern and western parts of Wales. Marginally severe wind gusts (40-50 mph) are expected widely along this occluded front.
During the overnight period, another occluded front will advance NE from southern parts of Ireland into parts of NW England. MUCAPE range of 400-700 J/kg could lead to isolated thunderstorms developing starting. Within these heavy convective showers, very strong gusts could be embedded, reaching speeds of up to 65-75 mph in some areas during 00z - 09z. Isolated waterspouts and tornadoes are also possible due to strong shearing, especially across the broken segment in the line of thunderstorms, where the strongest rotating updraft occurs. The Manchester tornado, which happened on 27/12/2023, has a similar setup as well.
You can download the kml file of the convective outlook here
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