On Monday, an occluded front is expected to usher in rain over parts of Northern England and Scotland. Along the southern edge of this front, there is great potential for widespread scattered showers to form in central southern England, spreading north/northeastward into the Midlands during the late afternoon. 600 -1000 J/kg SBCAPE allows heavy showers to develop widely. In some areas, particularly Gloucestershire, these showers may intensify, possibly leading to heavy rainfall and thunderstorms. These thunderstorms are anticipated to be sporadic in nature, but due to deeper shear, this might allow some cells to bring frequent lightning, particularly along the western parts of the M4 corridor, perhaps bringing a risk of flash flooding locally. There is also a chance of hail showers accompanying in some showers, due to strong lapse rate and weak low-level shear.
Additionally, there is a slight possibility of elevated thunderstorms developing overnight in the far southwestern parts of England. However, due to limited atmospheric instability and inconsistent model predictions, confidence in this scenario is relatively low.
You can download the KML file of the convective outlook here:
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