An upper low will continue to bring unsettle weather to the some as it introduces moisture to southern and central parts of the UK.
The cap is expected to break on 1-2 pm, which allows thunderstorms to break out across the Midlands, and Wales. CAPE ( 1000-1500 J/kg, perhaps locally 2000J/kg), aids with daytime surface heating, will likely to allow some stronger thunderstorms in places. Temperature of 25-28C allows instability to build widely. Mid-level atmosphere is not saturated which allows parcels to escalate in the midlands.
The majority of models suggesting clusters of thunderstorms will first develop across Central south England, then turn increasingly widespread in the late afternoon, especially across the Midlands. These clusters of thunderstorms will move east /northwest slowly mid afternoon, which increases the risk of gusty wind, some hail and flooding.
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