A low-pressure system has developed over the English Channel, bringing bands of torrential downpours to parts of England and Wales. Localized flooding will be the primary concern today and tomorrow as thunderstorms and heavy rain continue to affect parts of the Midlands over the next 36 hours.
An occluded front associated with this low pressure is moving northward, and the heavy downpours linked to it are weakening as they head further north in the afternoon, allowing clearer spells to emerge along the southern coasts in the coming hours. Diurnal heating is expected to intensify some of the remaining showers across southern England. According to the latest radar and satellite imagery, showers are already developing over Hampshire, moving NNW toward the Midlands. Due to a saturated atmosphere, lightning activity will remain limited through the early afternoon. However, mid-level saturation is forecasted to clear later in the day, meaning that as this area of showers moves north of the M4 (e.g., around Swindon and Reading), rapid convective development is anticipated. CAPE levels may exceed 100 J/kg in some areas, leading to the formation of active thunderstorms. However, due to insufficient deep-level shear, these storms are not expected to last long before merging back into prolonged rainfall. As a result, only a Level 3 (enhanced risk) warning has been issued.
Further elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop as a shortwave linked to the low-pressure system emerges over the eastern English Channel, bringing heavy downpours and frequent lightning. A slight increase in deep-level shear means these storms could push further inland. Kent and Essex will likely experience the most lightning activity, but residual CAPE from earlier storms could lead to scattered thunderstorms further inland. Again, localized flooding remains a concern.
You can download the kml file of the convective outlook here:
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